Thanksgiving eve 2019
This should be a very good weekend. And because the weekend we’re facing from last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving, we’ll be up a good 50%. This is kind of a funny weekend though for films opening today, with both today and tomorrow being pretty good days, they can alter the path of the new movies with good or bad playability. Since both films opening today seem to have very strong playability, it will be interesting to see if they pick up momentum as the weekend unfolds. So, with the accuracy normally associated with the Rams run defense, here’s my best take on the weekend Boxoffice.
#1 Frozen II - Generally the rule for films that open the weekend before Thanksgiving is the opening weekend 3 day is very close to the Thanksgiving weekend 5 day. However with an opening as big as Frozen II last weekend, it will probably be a little less than that. Figure about $80 million for the 3 day and $120 million or so for the 5 day.
#2 *Knives Out *- Lion’s Gate just keeps opening films higher than you would expect. This crowd pleaser looks pretty good right now, and since Lion’s Gate has done an excellent job of positioning this as the ‘compromise’ movie choice (something everyone can agree on, and one of the things you strive for on Holiday weekends like this), this might pick up some steam as the weekend progresses and word of mouth kicks in. For now, let’s say the 3 day is in the mid 20’s, and once you add today and tomorrow in plus the other shows they’ve had so far, it should end up in the mid 30’s with a decent shot at 40.
#3 Ford v. Ferrari - Rock solid today, should end up in the low teens for the 3 day and the high teens for the 5 day.
#4 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - Also looks pretty good, figure 10 for the 3, low teens for the 5.
#5 Queen & Slim - Curiously, they didn’t do previews last night, but it started red hot today. They must have had really good presales because after that big start, it’s been pretty flat all day. We don’t have any history of films like this over Thanksgiving weekend so I’m not sure how to model it, but this film is supposed to have great playability. As a total hipshot, figure it’s about $10 million for the 3 day and about $14 million for the 5 day.
Everyone have a great thanksgiving.