Fourth weekend of October 2019

Although weekends like this (where Halloween is later in the following week) used to be a great spot to place a substantial adult skewing film, it’s now a weekend that most studios steer clear of. That may have something to do with the shift towards more adults allowing their subconscious thoughts to manifest themselves in their choice of Halloween costumes (and in many cases, we wish they would have kept those thoughts private), and the social clutter of adult skewing Halloween events having an effect on the box office. I don’t really agree with that school of thought (I think this is a very normal weekend when Halloween is on the following Wed or Thurs), and both STX and Sony took advantage of the lack of competition and placed titles here. The lack of competition allowed both studios to release a genre film with a very efficient level of spend, so without knowing the details of each films break point, I wouldn’t be surprised if it works out fairly well for both parties. So, based on something I heard from a woman screaming at a cardboard cutout of Harvey Weinstein, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.

#1 Joker - The drop looks pretty solid right now, figure down 35% for a 3 day in the very high teens with a shot at 20.

#2 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil - Looks pretty standard for a 2nd weekend, figure down 55% for a 3 day in the mid high teens.

#3 Zombieland 2 - Down 60% for about 11 or 12.

#4 Addams Family - Looks solid today, down 35% for about 10.

Black and Blue - Right now looks like 7 or 8, but could get a late surge.

Countdown - Like most horror films they could also see a late night surge, but for now 6 or 7.

The Current War - The recut of one of the TWC orphans, the went on about 1000 screens. Looks like about $3 million.

The Lighthouse - Expanded to a little less than 600 screens and doesn’t look half bad, figure it’s also in the $3 million range.

Western Stars - Opened on 500 theaters and just looks okay right now, figure about $1 million.