The Nun II
Horror Warner Bros. R Released Sep 8, 2023 Discussed 2023–2024
Opening weekend
$32.6M
3,728 theaters
Per-theater average
$8,746
opening weekend
Domestic total
$86.3M
2.6× its opening
Worldwide total
$269.7M
32% domestic
Production budget
$38.0M
7.1× worldwide
RT critics
51%
RT audience
72%
+21 vs critics
Metacritic
47
Where it turns up
Friday, September 8, 2023 Second weekend of September 2023
On the chart The Nun II (opening): $32.6M
Expected 'As of right now, it looks like 30 for the weekend': with a core-exhaustion sag flagged Actual: $32.6M
In the note
This should be a traditional box office weekend for the weekend after Labor Day, decent box office driven by a well marketed Horror film. Following the same pattern we’ve seen lately, we’ll crush last year's total ( Barbarian and a decent $4.5 million Bollywood film) and maybe get close to doubling it, and similarly we’ll be well behind 2019 where It Chapter 2 grosses a terrific $91.1 million. The rest of the month should look pretty similar to last year, a bunch of singles and the overall totals each weekend should line up pretty good to last year. However, thanks to Ms Swift and her cult massive fanship, we’ll have a terrific October. Not much to say today, and it's been another rough week losing another titan of the industry in Jake Bloom. But speaking of titans, I do find it interesting that when you throw in the Disney/Spectrum scuffle with all the rest of the disruptions going on, it’s clear that we needed this crossroads to address everything that’s been changing in the industry. What’s interesting is that you’ve got Disney going both ways. On the Guild side, the Guilds are saying ‘we don’t like the way the past contracts work for us going forward because of current technology’ and Disney is saying ‘nah, we good’. On the Cable side, it’s the opposite; Spectrum wants to protect what the old contracts gave them that keep profitable bundles together, and Disney is looking for bandwidth to make some money outside of the bundles. So when you see a company as vast and entrenched as Disney is in all phases of the business, but needs to be on different sides of the evolve/stay put issues, you know it’s going to take a while to untangle it. Anyway, based on something I learned from reading the script for Weekend at Bernie’s 2024: Nancy Pelosi’s Campaign Victory Party, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. The Nun II - WB has released some pretty successful scary movies on this weekend, from the ground breaking It to the most terrifying of them all, Contagion.
Friday, September 15, 2023 Third weekend of September 2023
On the chart The Nun II (wk 2): $14.5M, -55%
Expected 'Should be down 60% for a weekend of about $13 million' Actual: $14.5M, -55%
In the note
Anyway, this looks a lot like the $12.9 million that Death on the Nile grossed, but that was on Super Bowl weekend, so this should have a better Sunday and finish the weekend around $14 million. The Nun 2 II - Looking pretty normal for a Horror film in week II 2, so if it stays the course it should be down 60% for a weekend of about $13 million. The Retirement Plan - Another Nic Cage ‘programmer’ went 1200 runs and is doing just what these films generally do.
Friday, September 22, 2023 Fourth weekend of September 2023
On the chart The Nun II (wk 3): $8.6M, -41%
Expected 'Pretty normal horror drop... down another 50% for a weekend in the low 7's' Actual: $8.6M, -41%
In the note
Looks like a weekend of 9 or 10 right now. The Nun II - Pretty normal horror drop in it’s 3rd weekend, probably down another 50% for a weekend in the low 7’s. A Haunting in Venice - With the better critics scores and better exits than Death on the Nile, you would think this would hold a little better in week 2.
Friday, October 6, 2023 First weekend of October 2023
In the note
As of now, this looks a little behind where The Nun II was at the same point on opening day.