Moana 2

Friday, June 28, 2024 Fourth weekend of June 2024

In the note But that’s another example of how this sector is hard, it’s possible that IP was just so specific in skew that (even though the film was excellent) you weren't going to grow the reach no matter how much exposure it got. But if I’m right and the Disney + exposure caused that stunning opening on Inside Out 2……..Moana 2 (Moana was by far the biggest title on Disney +), yikes, what's the ceiling there? Anyway, with the similar accuracy of any Peter Bart take on the industry right now, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Inside Out 2 - Still looking great, figure it's down 40% or so for a weekend of about $60 million. A Quiet Place: Day One - This is holding its own against the first two movies right now, and in another marketplace, I'm not sure we'd be saying that.

Friday, November 22, 2024 Glicked weekend 2024

In the note And it looks like it’s going to deliver at a level that might put us in the running for biggest weekend before Thanksgiving ever, and as a bonus (with Moana 2 coming in next Wednesday) we're in the game to set a new Thanksgiving weekend record as well.

Thursday, November 28, 2024 Thanksgiving 2024

On the chart Moana 2 (Wed opening): $139.8M 3-day / $225.4M 5-day, all-time Thanksgiving record

Expected 'A 3 day of about $90 million and [5-day] around $170 million' Actual: $139.8M / $225.4M, the biggest Thanksgiving ever

In the note But let’s be clear about Moana, even though they might have done more business had they moved up to last week, based on what I’m guessing its green light pro forma looked like, this might be the most over performing film in Disney history based on the pre production forecasts. Since Moana 2 was greenlit for Disney +, and then elevated to Theatrical (and I’m guessing some more money got put into it to make it more visually theatrical), all it had to do was make back it’s P & A (and maybe whatever extra they had to spend to bring it up the theatrical standards) to get it past those pro forma numbers.

Friday, December 6, 2024 First weekend of December 2024

On the chart Moana 2 (wk 2): $51.3M, -63%

Expected 'Should be down 60% for a 3 day in the mid 50's' Actual: $51.3M, -63%

In the note Thanks to the gift of Wickona tm, we’re going to set another record this weekend, and just the total of Wickona tm should total more than the 5 year average for the weekend after Thanksgiving (to be fair, I’m taking out 2020 and 2021; if we left those 2 years in, just Moana 2 would gross more than the average of the last 5 years).

Friday, December 13, 2024 Second weekend of December 2024

On the chart Moana 2 (wk 3): $26.5M, -48%

Expected 'Down another 50% for a weekend around $30 million' Actual: $26.5M, -48%

In the note I’m a big fan of exploring release date boundaries, but in this case we now know to understand specific genre performance characteristics when we try new things. Anyway, with the same expected accuracy of a De'Vondre Campbell participation trophy, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Moana 2 - After opening weekend, the exits seemed to point towards some really strong holdover weeks, but the grosses aren’t quite matching up.

Friday, December 20, 2024 Third weekend of December 2024

Expected 'Both look down only about 35%... in the mid teens' Actual: Wicked $14.2M, -38%; Moana 2 $13.2M, -50%

Where it turns up