Moana

Friday, June 28, 2024 Fourth weekend of June 2024

In the note But that’s another example of how this sector is hard, it’s possible that IP was just so specific in skew that (even though the film was excellent) you weren't going to grow the reach no matter how much exposure it got. But if I’m right and the Disney + exposure caused that stunning opening on Inside Out 2……..Moana 2 (Moana was by far the biggest title on Disney +), yikes, what's the ceiling there? Anyway, with the similar accuracy of any Peter Bart take on the industry right now, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Inside Out 2 - Still looking great, figure it's down 40% or so for a weekend of about $60 million. A Quiet Place: Day One - This is holding its own against the first two movies right now, and in another marketplace, I'm not sure we'd be saying that.

Friday, July 5, 2024 July 4th weekend 2024

In the note The biggest opening of all time the day before Thanksgiving (where Wicked used to be) was Moana, and there were 28 films that opened in November to a higher gross than the $57 million Moana opened to.

Friday, November 15, 2024 Third weekend of November 2024

In the note It’s nice to see these films back in theaters. Some might say, yeah, but here comes Glicked tm plus Moana and the films opening before them are gonna get crushed.

Friday, November 22, 2024 Glicked weekend 2024

In the note And it looks like it’s going to deliver at a level that might put us in the running for biggest weekend before Thanksgiving ever, and as a bonus (with Moana 2 coming in next Wednesday) we're in the game to set a new Thanksgiving weekend record as well.

Thursday, November 28, 2024 Thanksgiving 2024

In the note Because Wicked got a chance to escape the gravity of Moana for 5 days, it’s now generated its own momentum and it’s going to have an amazing 2nd weekend.

Friday, December 6, 2024 First weekend of December 2024

In the note Thanks to the gift of Wickona tm, we’re going to set another record this weekend, and just the total of Wickona tm should total more than the 5 year average for the weekend after Thanksgiving (to be fair, I’m taking out 2020 and 2021; if we left those 2 years in, just Moana 2 would gross more than the average of the last 5 years).

Friday, December 20, 2024 Third weekend of December 2024

In the note So the reasons Mufasa won’t achieve box-office parody with Sonic this weekend, and what they look like after the 17 holiday days might be a different story, are issues that are very hard to predict when you’re dating something over a year in advance. What’s different here is that unlike the situation we had last month with Moana and Wicked, the one that moved got an upgrade; that was not the case here and if either film moved, it would have been a flinch.

Friday, July 10, 2026 Second weekend of July 2026

On the chart Moana (live-action): mid/high 40s (Lightyear-territory)

Expected Mid/high $40s M opening Actual: $43.0M

Friday, July 17, 2026 Third weekend of July 2026

On the chart Moana: ~$20M in continued play

Expected ~$20M, off a normal ~55% Actual: $19.0M, -56%

Friday, July 31, 2026 Fifth weekend of July 2026

On the chart Moana: ~$6M

Expected ~$6M, down ~35% Actual: $5.3M

Where it turns up