The Marvels
Superhero & Comic Disney PG-13 1h 45m Released Nov 10, 2023 Discussed 2023–2024
Opening weekend
$46.1M
4,030 theaters
Per-theater average
$11,442
opening weekend
Domestic total
$84.5M
1.8× its opening
Worldwide total
$206.1M
41% domestic
Production budget
$270.0M
0.8× worldwide
RT critics
63%
RT audience
79%
+16 vs critics
Metacritic
50
Where it turns up
Friday, November 10, 2023 Second weekend of November 2023
On the chart The Marvels (opening): $46.1M
Expected 'As of now, this looks like it's in the mid 50's': low end of the Marvel range Actual: $46.1M
In the note
Even though we have a semi holiday today (Veteran’s Day) and about half of K-12 is out of school, it’s going to be a solid but unspectacular weekend at the box-office; we’ve got the usual Disney/Marvel film to drive the overall total but because there are unique elements to this year’s film (more on that below), we’ll end up way below the same weekend last year (Black Panther 2) and a little behind 2019 (Midway, Doctor Sleep, Playing With Fire, Last Christmas). However, the next two weeks should obliterate 2022’s similar weekends, so there’s bluer skies ahead. Obviously there’s a giddy mood around town today, now that we’ve got the strike behind us we can get back to work. It will be interesting to see how the town reacts once we all get to look under the hood of the deal (we're already seeing some of those articles). One of the interesting press releases once the deal was (tentatively) agreed to, was the Studio side saying how great it was for SAG/AFTRA. Hmmmmmm, did anyone else think that was weird? When one side is selling how good the other side did in a negotiation, I get a little paranoid. But there’s one aspect that will be super interesting to understand. For both sides, what was the ROI on both strikes? Obviously there was a lot of money sacrificed on both sides of the fence, but I’d be especially curious about what the losses of the studios over the shutdown period were, compared to what they would have paid had they said yes to these financial terms way back when (and avoided the strike)? And clearly you have to include the fact that linear TV is going to miss having fresh content during the lucrative holiday period (when the rate cards are at the highest point of the year). Of course the actors/writers sacrificed a lot of money too, but the actors/writers don’t have stock value and shareholder issues. So if the losses to the studios overall were $1, but the cost to them under the new contracts was $.80 during the same period, shouldn’t we understand that since we’re going to be right back here in 3 years? Obviously if the cost under the new contracts is $1.20 over the same period, that’s certainly something to consider as well. ROI is especially tricky when you factor in the streamers, since even the most seasoned industry bean counter would calculate ROI at the streamers as...ummmm....I dunno......the future? Money wasn’t the only issue and I’m not sure just saying yes to the money would have put the strike on hold while they solved other issues, including how to calculate a residual (or a bonus as it’s being termed now) for content running on streamers, as well the the boogeyman of the moment, AI. But now that we have a more current framework for both of those issues, maybe looking backwards at the ROI from the strike and understanding what it was, we can move forward next time without another strike. Anyway, with the expected accuracy of tracking forecasts based on tracking (instead of the pre-sales numbers that appear to be the main data source), here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. The Marvels - As you may have heard by now, this is going to be at the low end of what we see Disney/Marvel films do, and we’ll have to hear the lazy entertainment press babble on about ’super hero fatigue’.
Friday, November 17, 2023 Third weekend of November 2023
On the chart The Marvels (wk 2): $10.1M, -78%
Expected 'Down 65% or so for a weekend in the mid teens' Actual: $10.1M, -78%; a record collapse
In the note
It’s running a little behind where The Marvels was last week at this point, but there are 0 kids out of school today compared to 50% last Friday, so this should be much better tonight.
Friday, March 8, 2024 Second weekend of March 2024
In the note
If visual AI would have allowed something like The Marvels to be made for a price that would have allowed Disney to have the option of pivoting to a straight to platform release, could they have? There are two key factors here; first is obviously the lower marketing spend for a platform drop vs a Theatrical release.