Kung Fu Panda 4

Friday, March 8, 2024 Second weekend of March 2024

On the chart Kung Fu Panda 4 (opening): $58.0M

Expected 'Figure this ends up in the mid 50's for the weekend' Actual: $58.0M

In the note So lower costs can mean a studio has options once they see how a film turns out, and could affect other films in their slate as well. Anyway, with the same expected accuracy of a United Airlines maintenance quality check, here are some thoughts on the weekend box office. Kung Fu Panda 4 - This looks really good today, but looking at the history of this IP, it looks like Universal is a little better at opening these movies than Paramount was.

Friday, March 15, 2024 Third weekend of March 2024

On the chart Kung Fu Panda 4 (wk 2): $30.1M, -48%

In the note Although the new entries this week aren’t going to make much of a splash, combined with the titles that have opened the last couple of weeks, we should be about even with last year’s (Shazam! Fury of the Gods) weekend box-office . Although we’ll have a nice sequel next week (Ghostbusters: The Frozen Empire) it’s probably not going to be able to match the series high gross from last year’s John Wick: Chapter 4 at $74 million, so we’ll start digging our year to year hole again next week. This is pretty much going to be the story for a while, but hopefully we’ll have a few surprises that keep us close to last year. But if I had to guess right now, I'd say we’ll be down about 20% from last year. On a brighter note, it looks like SXSW is back as the ’Sundance for Movie goers who are comfortable identifying as normal’. Before the shutdown, SXSW was a terrific launching pad for broad appeal films like A Quiet Place and Ready Player One. But ever since we started getting together in groups again, the reach you would get from a Premier there was pretty light. Last year films like Dungeons & Dragons and Bottoms were good, and played gangbusters there, but the reach of the event was still short of what we would see pre-shutdown. There was talk last year that the main difference was the international press, they hadn’t come back yet (apparently the same issue applied to Sundance until this year) so that’s why we weren't seeing the same butterfly effect from the premiere. But from the data I see during my day job, it’s back. And here’s why it’s important. If you’ve got a film that fits into what SXSW is, in the big scheme of things, it’s a pretty good value. If you’re going to spend mid 6 figures anyway on a premier, why not do it in a place where it’s packed with opinion makers and influencers naturally? You do a big premiere for the publicity you get from the activity on the Carpet, but at something like a SXSW, you get the bonus of what goes on in the theater after the carpet (because it’s packed with influencers and opinion makers). And when you compare SXSW to something with similar reach like Cannes (at least domestically), it’s a bargain. But as we recover from the shutdown (and now the strikes) it’s nice to know we’ve got a few marketing tools getting back to normal. Anyway, with a similar accuracy and efficacy of someone yelling ‘careful!’ exactly .5 seconds after you whack your head, trip on something or slip on something; here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Dune Part Two, Kung Fu Panda 4 - This could go either way, and figure they’ll both be in the range of $30 million for the weekend.

Friday, March 22, 2024 Fourth weekend of March 2024

On the chart Kung Fu Panda 4 (wk 3): $16.5M, -45%

Expected 'Down 45% or so for a weekend in the low mid teens' Actual: $16.5M, -45%

In the note

Friday, March 29, 2024 Easter weekend 2024

Expected 'Way up from last Friday... for a gross of about 11' Actual: $10.3M

In the note Figure it’s down 20% or so for a weekend in the low/mid teens. Kung Fu Panda 4 - With all the kids available today, this is way up from last Friday.

Friday, July 26, 2024 Fourth weekend of July 2024

In the note Now the Deadpool IP has moved under Disney’s umbrella, that record is going to be smashed by 50% or so this weekend. Because Disney has honed their Marvel machine ever since they bought Marvel 15 years ago, are they better at opening this Genre than Fox was? We saw something similar a couple of months ago when Kung Fu Panda 4 opened under Universal’s watch, after the first 3 films had been marketed by Paramount, and results at Universal were considerably better than what happened when Dreamworks Animation was at Paramount.

Where it turns up