The Hunger Games

Friday, November 17, 2023 Third weekend of November 2023

In the note Many of the films opening this weekend are highlighting where we are as a sector, as well as how we got here. Anyway, with the expected accuracy and efficacy of a USC Defensive Back, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - Prequels can be a tough road, we’ve seen some recent prequels flame out at the box-office lately (such as the Kingsman prequel), so as much as part of our mission these days is to mine every corner of good IP, going early in the story doesn’t always pay off.

Friday, February 9, 2024 Super Bowl weekend 2024

In the note Same with the first Hunger Games.

Friday, November 8, 2024 Second weekend of November 2024

In the note Another calendar aberration comes into play next weekend, Thanksgiving was one week earlier last year, so next weekend was the weekend before Thanksgiving sweet spot (where the bigger movies usually open), so with Hunger Games, Trolls Band Together, Thanksgiving and Next Goal Wins opening, we’ll be way behind next week.

Friday, November 15, 2024 Third weekend of November 2024

In the note So last year this was the weekend before Thanksgiving, where the traditional big movies of Thanksgiving open; Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Trolls Band Together, Thanksgiving and Next Goal Wins opened.

Friday, November 22, 2024 Glicked weekend 2024

In the note And here we are, we finally got to Glicked tm weekend. And it looks like it’s going to deliver at a level that might put us in the running for biggest weekend before Thanksgiving ever, and as a bonus (with Moana 2 coming in next Wednesday) we're in the game to set a new Thanksgiving weekend record as well. The combination of this weekend being at or near record setting levels, and last year (this was Thanksgiving weekend last year) being pretty sucky (Napoleon, Wish), we’ll either double or get close to doubling last year's weekend total. The same should hold for Thanksgiving weekend, even though last year it was the weekend after Thanksgiving (which is normally very quiet), we had a couple of bigger than normal films for that weekend in Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce and Godzilla: Minus One. So we’re gonna start chipping away at the deficit from last year really quickly. I don’t see a weekend for the rest of the year where we’re going to be behind last year; we’ve got the same number of wide releases (10), but the films are considerably bigger this year and that’s a great step towards getting back to normal. Today we’re going to talk about release dates, and how (like a lot of aspects of this business, or any business for that matter) it’s sometimes difficult to take a step back and look at what’s actually the best business decision, because the idea of who wins the short term battle doesn’t always mean you won the war. Over and over again we’ve had situations where two films end up on the same release date that would probably be better off if they were on separate days. You can go way way back to crazy examples like The Empire Strikes Back and The Shining both opened on the same day. There was The Love Guru vs Get Smart in 2008 or Fast & Furious 6 vs Hangover 3 in 2013, the list goes on and on. But Glicked tm almost didn’t happen because both Wicked and Moana 2 were both originally supposed to open next Wednesday. How did that happen? Wicked was originally dated for Christmas this year, but in March 2023 it moved to the day before Thanksgiving. Disney (as many studios do) had a ‘placeholder’ on the same date as Disney Untitled Animation, which would follow the rich history Disney has had on that date (Frozen, Tangled, Coco, Moana, etc). Considering when Universal placed Wicked there, Disney animation was going through a rough patch and the last 3 films on that date were Encanto, Strange World and Wish; there was nothing to be afraid of competition wise. But in February this year Disney saw what they had in the Disney + bound Moana 2, decided to upgrade it to a theatrical release and dated it for next Wednesday. Here’s where it gets dicey, and you can call this by any non-PC name you want (schoolyard shoving match, dick measuring contest, Mexican standoff, etc); they both said ’the other film should move because we were here first’. And you can see how they both had a point, Wicked moved there because sometimes those ‘placeholders’ just go away, and until there’s a real movie there, why not go there? Disney had a point because ’they always deliver a movie there’, so we ended up with 5 months of ’no, they’re the asshole’. And here’s where the idea of winning a battle and winning a war come into play. You have two movies on the same date, and if you looked at a Venn Diagram for the two audience makeups, it would pretty much just be one circle, with an edge towards Disney’s Animation audience as opposed to Wicked's someone finite Musical Theater audience. While both studios were sitting in opposite corners of the day before Thanksgiving room with their arms folded, there was this big shiny beacon of light next door coming from the weekend before Thanksgiving, where little ol’ Gladiator II was sitting there all by it’s lonesome self, and either Wicked or Moana 2 could move there and not really have much of an effect on it, and would have a much better competitive landscape without the other film on the same date. And as you’ve seen with BarbenHeimer and now Glicked tm, maybe the whole is bigger than the sum of the parts if one moved there? But there’s a key fact that was being overlooked while both studios stewed and said ‘f them’, Paramount was there because they were smart enough to know the weekend before Thanksgiving is the best release date of November (especially when the calendar sets up the way it did this year), and it’s a far better release date than the day before Thanksgiving; and neither studio wanted it. Let’s take a look at the data, here are the five biggest openings on the weekend before Thanksgiving: - Hunger Games - Catching Fire $158 million - Twilight Saga - New Moon $143 million - Twilight Saga - Breaking Dawn Part II $141 million - Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part I $138 million - Frozen 2 $130 million Pretty impressive, right? Here are the top 5 (3 day grosses) for opening the day before Thanksgiving: - Frozen $67 million - Moana $57 million - Ralph Breaks the Internet $57 million - Coco $51 million - Tangled $49 million. What is especially compelling is if you look at the insanely high quality (combined with Disney’s marketing prowess) of those day before Thanksgiving openings, they all live in the mid 8 figure range, but the films opening the weekend before go well into 9 figures.

Friday, December 6, 2024 First weekend of December 2024

In the note Why do we do that? It’s pretty simple, the ‘Golden 8’, the eight days between Christmas and New Year’s Day all gross like it’s a Saturday Night; so it’s worth being your studio’s Tribute in the Christmas Hunger Games; you just want to be Katniss and not Glimmer. Because of the pre Christmas social clutter, the box-office behaves differently this time of year, and if you’re going to be in the know you have to be wary of a few normal industry catchphrases.

Friday, December 20, 2024 Third weekend of December 2024

In the note But this time of the year is different and it’s fine to set things up this way because you’re dealing with 17 days of robust business instead of 3, so you’re in it for the long game and both films can be successful. But this weekend is still The Hunger Games, and if you’re going to go head to head with another monster, you need to have the upper hand on the other film with 3 key aspects (to get you through this weekend): IP strength and how it’s applied to the film, Critical Response, and level of Entertainment.

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